Reality Distortion Fields

I’m a big time Apple fan, I’ve spent 3 decades using the products of my favourite fruit company and I’ve always been in awe of Steve Jobs. One of my big regrets in life is that I never got to see his famous ‘Reality Distortion Field’ in action, this was his legendary ability to reframe and present a concept such that Apple could own a market.

Jobs did this many times and over time it stretched from the launch of the first Mac, to his return to Apple, the iMac, the iPod, iTunes, the iPhone and iPad and the rest is history.

So I was very curious to see Chorus attempt to build their own ‘Reality Distortion Field’ with a press release this morning saying they wanted the current ‘FPP’ copper pricing review process being undertaken by the Commerce Commission to be based on ‘New Zealand Reality”.

What they actually mean is that they want it conducted according to reality as defined by Chorus. This would then mean that the Comcom would simply base their findings based on Chorus’s books and current cost structures not the process the Comcom are required to conduct which is based on modeling a competitive network benchmarked against similar networks offshore.

Chorus are trying the ‘illusionist’s’ trick of distraction “look over there…” but they have broken the first rule of reality distortion, never, never let your audience know what you are really doing.

Can you imagine Steve Jobs ever saying ‘we want your mobile phone purchases to be based on an Apple reality’ ?

No, instead he painted a picture that was so compelling, you couldn’t see anything other than his reality and did it so well his keynotes became media events and stockmarkets moved as a result.

 

Forbidden Knowledge…

There’s been a wee drama unfolding off screen over the last few days as our TV operators have lined up behind SKY TV to refuse to run a TVC from Slingshot that made a reference to their ‘global mode’ service that lets customers get around IP address based geoblocking so that they can access off shore video content from providers such as Netflix, Hulu, iTunes and BBC iPlayer.

The supposed reason for the ban is the legality of global mode. Apparently a complaint has now been laid with the ASA (Advertising Standards Authority) so we’ll see how this plays out, but Slingshot have now ‘censored’ the offending material so I think it may end up as an ironic net positive for them.

What is at stake here is the future direction of NZ’s close to $1bn/yr TV advertising market, what the channels sell advertisers is audiences and there are 3 things that generate big viewing audiences, live sporting events (most of which SKY own) News and compelling TV shows (like Dr Who, Top Gear, Game of Thrones or Breaking Bad). The problem is that the internet has broken all three models.

TV doesn’t break news any more, it often simply aggregates and repeats news from on-line sources, the same is happening with sport and will increase as sporting organisations will increasingly seek to monetise their own audiences and the TV content rapidly looses its audience generating appeal when global fan bases all tune in to the first run and its reviews.

I think we all know people who have gone down the global route, I have friends who have moved back to NZ from the states, they have a fast (non-UFB) 100mb/s connection, the technical savvy to ‘global mode’ and they enjoy Netflix, Hulu and US iTunes. I also know of a former cabinet minister who saw an Apple TV overseas, bought one and then was very disappointed at the NZ Apple TV offering.

I think SKY, TVNZ & Mediaworks need to be careful implying that people like these are thieves and pirates, they are not – they are customers. More than that they are prepared to pay for the content they want, just not necessarily to the so-called NZ rights holders. But this is also bigger than that, their business model is under threat from marketers shifting their budgets on-line, have you noticed the local ads you get at the start of YouTube clips?.

As advertisers follow their audiences on-line the defensive measures will get more desperate, and the real battle lines will get drawn. I think Slingshot will emerge from this skirmish with greater awareness of global mode and the concept of ‘geoblocking‘ and the whole ‘stack’ of content rights will slowly get dismantled and get dispatched to the rubbish bin of outdated ideas.

 

 

And so is Telecom…

As we count down the last few days of Telecom in its current form, they have just come out with a request that TUANZ can easily get 100% behind – consistent gigabit downloads and pricing from all NZ’s local fibre companies.

It’s time for a ‘Giganation’ says Telecom as UFB coverage hits 100%

Telecom, soon to be Spark New Zealand, says the time has come for Gigabit per second data download speeds to be available across all of New Zealand’s Ultra Fast Broadband (UFB) fibre network.

It seems that the idea of a ‘Giganation’ is going to get a lot closer as the largest RSP calls for all the LFC’s to offer consistently spec’d and priced services.

This also shows that Telecom now sees that gigabit residential fibre is the aspirational product for Kiwi homes. 

I was feeling all ‘Giga’d’ out a couple of months ago, Gigatown was grinding on and looked like the only game in town, then we had Telecom talking about ‘GigaWiFi’ then they launched ‘Giganaires’ but the game changer came when the Central North island LFC UFF (Ultra Fast Fibre) declared themselves to be the ‘GigaNet’.

And now its all starting to come together, the largest RSP is basically calling for common sense to prevail in every part of NZ, Chorus need to go beyond Gigatown as the prize is really diminished in value, NorthPower and Enable need to get a Gigabit product out there and UFF are to be congratulated.

This means that real residential gigabit downloads speeds are coming, and its no coincidence that this lines up with Telecom / Spark getting ready to launch ‘LightBox’ their $15/month internet TV service.

Hopefully this marks the beginning of the UFB being marketed as more than DSL on steroids, Telecom will need to update their TVC that currently states that fibre is up to 7x faster and in the future that’ll be up to 7 million x faster.

I can’t wait…

 

 

 

Kim Dot Com is right…

About one thing anyway, and that is that we need fibre to 98% of New Zealand

5.2. Universal access

Fibre for all: The Internet Party believes that fibre broadband is essential infrastructure if New Zealand is to become a global leader in the digital age. The goal is fibre to the premises of the 97.8 percent of New Zealanders covered by the UFB and RBI programmes. While UFB is expected to provide fibre to 75 percent of New Zealanders by 2020, the Internet Party will deliver fibre to the remaining 22.8 percent in the RBI coverage area.

Rather than a single, “one size fits all” national programme, this will be achieved by co-ordinating a number of individual initiatives to:

  • Encourage and support Local Fibre Companies to expand their coverage areas.

  • Similarly, encourage and support companies with fibre laid before the UFB programme.

  • Catalyse, support, and remove obstacles for communities to self-organise, similar to BARN or other local initiatives.

  • Build spurs from fibre laid by Chorus under RBI.

  • Develop partnerships with iwi, marae, and local businesses.

  • Invite innovative proposals from local communities and continuously look globally for successful examples.

I won’t go into the details but the key thing here is that fibre is the future. There’s is an irony that technologies are always at their best at the end of their useful lives, examples of this are everywhere, the fastest steam trains were the last steam trains, the fastest piston engined fighters were also the last ones.

The situation often occurs when their is still a degree of equivalence between the old technology and the new one that is replacing it, early diesel trains weren’t that much better and later mark Spitfires & Mustangs were up there with the early jets but everyone could see the huge potential of the new technologies.

Its the same in the copper versus fibre debate, yes better speeds can still be extracted from clean copper over short distances, but when you read about speeds like this thats an unbelievable 43tb/s – thats terabits per second. And thats why fibre is the future, nothing else can deliver that kind of potential.

I think it also helps to understand 2 other current trends, one is that 1 gb/s is well on its way to being our baseline speed and the second is why we need a planned exit from the copper network.

For all you radio geeks.

MBIE (the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment) have just announced a review of the Radio Communications Act 1989. Before you yawn and click off, take a moment to think about all the radios that you use every day without even thinking about it:

Wifi, bluetooth, your mobile, your car radio, your baby monitor and anything else thats wireless. 

All of these things work because there is actually a system making sure all the pieces work together without interference or inappropriate uses.

Here’s what MBIE have to say:

Radio Spectrum Management (RSM) in the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment is reviewing the Radiocommunications Act 1989.  We are seeking your views on how well the Act is working and what changes, if any, are required to the legislation. 

The key areas of the radio spectrum management regime being considered as part of the review are:

·         interference management

·         competition regulation during spectrum allocations

·         technical definition of management rights and licences

·         regional division of management rights

·         regulation of new technologies such as cognitive radio and white space devices.

You are receiving this email because you have been identified as having an interest in radio spectrum regulation – as a management right owner, licence holder or radio engineer, for example, or due to your involvement in an industry that uses radio spectrum. 

 To download the discussion document, or make a submission, please visit the consultation page on the RSM website. We are asking for feedback by Wednesday 1 October 2014. 

Workshops on the review will be held in mid-September in Auckland and Wellington.  If there is sufficient demand, we will also hold a workshop in Christchurch.  To attend a workshop please register your interest by Wednesday 10 September 2014, using the on-line form on the consultation page of our website.

TUANZ will be participating in the review, if you have any views or input to add, let me know:

chris@tuanz.org.nz

 

Policy worth stealing

Everybody’s favourite mayor is thinking big, and he’s picked on 3 of my favourite topics, 5G, broadband as infrastructure and publishing every homes broadband speeds.

As London becomes the bright shining center of the European tech scene, it’s only natural that the city would like to maintain its place at the top of the pile. That’s why mayor Boris Johnson is pledging that London will roll out a 5G network across the city by 2020. It’s part of a long-term infrastructure investment plan that’ll see connectivity given equal prominence to more conventional resources like transport, energy and water. At the same time, broadband speeds for each home in the capital will be made public alongside data from the networks in order to find communication blackspots that require additional work.

While there aren’t many details, it is great to see a city that gets it, Boris also recognises that local government has a huge role to play in this space. Labour took a step in this direction last week with its policy of getting broadband added to council GIS systems but Boris is taking to a logical conclusion.

I’ll be really impressed if London has 5G by 2020 (its not really due till sometime between 2022-2024) but he’s got the decade right.

I’m keen on a 5G agenda because it means we’ll focus on having and using ubiquitous gigabit access. I hope that by the middle of the century we’ll look back at our current ‘broadband’ issues and wonder ‘what took us so long?’.

Is Broadband a real estate issue?

Do you think we’ll reach a tipping point where ‘broadband’ stops being a technology issue and becomes a real estate issue instead?

This is a thought that has struck me a few times in the last 15 years or so. The reason is that good fixed line broadband is basically binary, you either have it or you don’t. If you have it then you have a range of options that simply aren’t available if you don’t.

I was very lucky, I had awesome fixed line broadband at the turn of the century (the 21st century) both at home and at my business.

I was a ‘Saturn’ cable modem triallist on the Kapiti Coast and I had a 100mb/s CityLink fibre connection at my office.

And that was when I realised that this would ultimately have to turn into a real estate issue, can you imagine buying a house without power, water or road access? Not likely unless you are after an ‘off the grid’ getaway.

I think good fixed line broadband is now crossing over into being a staple of a modern lifestyle. Yet my experience has been that on the whole the real estate industry is woeful when it comes to the knowledge of available connectivity.

I once briefed real estate agents and was quite specific about being on the Saturn network was a mandatory condition, for me connectivity trumps the view. I have had the same experience with commercial letting agents who didn’t understand what a ‘fibre’ connected office was!

So I was intrigued when I recently read an article on the woes of the internet in the US, its good to see that we’re actually doing somethings right. But on piece struck me:

Fiber is actually one of the best investments a homeowner can make. While it may cost up to $3,000 to bring fiber to your home, studies have shown that the value of your home will rise from $5,000 to $10,000. You will not get that return from remodeling a kitchen or adding a new deck.

This is actually a good sign and one that I hope CFH and the LFC’s pick up on, local councils too as this will lead to increased rates income. At the moment all our homes aren’t smart or truly connected but that is starting to change, as things like UFB connections become the new normal we will want our houses to be smart.

It’s hard to imagine not having electricity, well its going to be the same for bandwidth, when architects, developers, councils, builders and electricians all plan a homes connectivity (both external and internal) as part of the core systems and not an add on.

We hear that consents are holding up the UFB, MDU’s (multi dwelling units – flats & apartments) are a nightmare and I think this is because we still see the fibre upgrade as a luxury or a discretionary choice.

30 years ago it was simple, phone, power and water were basic utilities, whats changed?

Labours ICT policy pt2…

I’ve just got back from a press conference at parliament where David Cunliffe & Clare Curran launched the second part of their ICT policy. The first bit was done a couple of weeks ago at Nethui, my thoughts are here.

As an outsider it was fascinating to watch the ‘gallery’ in action and quite a contrast from the Nethui launch.

Today’s launch dealt with 3 areas, connectivity, digital divide and on-line rights.

Both Cunliffe and Curran showed the depth that comes from one being a former ICT minister and the other having had 6 years to grow in the ICT spokespersons role. Cunliffe dealt with the big picture stuff, a deep review of the whole UFB project, including CFH, the LFC’s and what can be done about the copper transition.

We’re also being promised what should be the final review of the Telco Act, this would be welcome and then focus shifted to the RBI. I’ve recently outlined TUANZ’s view of things rural and there’s some interesting discussion going on over at the NBR..

Labour recognise that rural is far from solved and as well as the inevitable review are also looking at fostering innovation in rural connectivity with a $9.6M contestable fund. They also support more competition in international connectivity and talk about a cable from Southland to Australia.

On the digital divide, they tackle the role of Local government and want to get the 20% of households with no broadband on-line. Again hard to fault and the devil will be in the details.

On on-line rights its basically less spying, legal access to content and a civilised approach to copyright.

All in all I’d give this one an A-, as one industry attendee said ‘Clare has obviously been listening to a lot of people’

I now await the National Party policy with interest, I hope i get invited to their launch.

The real big game continues…

Readers of this blog will remember the so called ‘Copper Tax’ campaign from the end of last year. Things may have seemed a little quiet on that front lately, but behind the scenes there’s quite a bit going on.

The latest skirmish to surface burst onto the scene with a press release from the Commerce Commission, then the story has started to grow, CallPlus have come out and shared their submission and the Telecom view is out there too.

The InternetNZ submission is now online here, the legal opinion by Michael Wigley is worth a read as it takes the issue apart in a clear logical sequence.

Its interesting that the issue is seen as a Telecom complaint to the commission as it is wider than that and pretty much involves everybody except Chorus including InternetNZ, Consumer NZ & TUANZ.

At stake is the integrity of our regulatory system and the future of copper (DSL) based broadband in New Zealand along with quite a few global trends as well.

It’s easy to get bogged down at this point in a veritable alphabet soup of 3 letter acronyms and deep interpretations of the Telco Act, so here’s my ‘idiots guide’:

The current broadband regulations set up a service called ‘UBA’ or ‘Unbundled Bitstream Access’ which specifies the price and performance of the ‘DSL’ services that Chorus are required to provide to retailers (what we used to call Telco’s and ISP’s).

Chorus has had 3 years to get ready for a change from ‘retail minus’ to ‘cost plus’ pricing for this service. The Comcom has set a new price for UBA which will come into effect on 1 December 2014.

This ‘interim’ price is substantially lower than the current price and will punch a big hole in Chorus revenues. Chorus are understandably not happy about this and have been trying a number of strategies to reverse this situation. I won’t go into all this now but its important to keep this in mind whenever you see anything about Chorus in the news.

In an attempt to use what they see as a ‘get out of jail free’ card, Chorus want to use a loophole in the act to launch some new copper services that because of their innovation and the investment involved are outside of the act and can be prices in binding contracts between Chorus and the individual retailers.

It is now well established that real ‘killer app’ for all forms of fast broadband is on-line video, it started with the growing popularity of YouTube and now extends to iTunes, Quickflix, Netflix etc and is the new battleground.

Telecom (soon to be Spark) have announced they are launching a service called ‘Lightbox’, CallPlus are going hard with their geoblock avoiding ‘global mode’ and of course Vodafone already have a strong relationship with SKY.

Google have recently certified a number of RSP’s as being good enough to receive their ‘HD Verified’ status (remember who owns YouTube). Video is seen as driving future broadband demand and traffic growth.

So along come Chorus with a special video optimised service called ‘Boost HD’ which will be specially tailored to deliver ‘HD’ video content. Sounds great doesn’t it ? the hitch comes when the retailers get the details on HD and quickly learn that it will be priced like todays UBA services, that its performance will increase as investments in the core network come on-line (investments also necessary to meet growing UFB traffic) and because Chorus consider this to be a new and innovative service it would no longer fall under the Commerce Commission’s oversight.

But wait there’s more, Chorus are also proposing that their regulated legacy UBA services, the ones that get cheaper at 1 December and may get even cheaper after the current FPP (Final pricing Principle) process (which Chorus asked for) has been concluded, will essentially be frozen in time at current speeds and they won’t enjoy the benefits of future network upgrades only the ‘commercial’ Boost HD services will.

From a Chorus perspective this all looks pretty good, dodge the regulatory bullet, preserve current copper revenues and get to sound like a player in the booming broadband video space.

However, from the retailers perspective it looks a bit different, they feel it is Chorus trying to abuse the act to in effect get them to ‘contract out of the law’, that Boost HD is simply a continuation of network upgrades that were planned back in Telecom days and that have been getting rolled out progressively anyway until now. And finally they see Chorus wanting to effectively degrade the regulated service that has actually worked remarkably well in improving the urban broadband experience for most New Zealanders.

At its root this issue comes down to money, Chorus want to restore their financial position and get back on track with their investors, this weeks CFH deal is part of that strategy as well. The retailers also want the best services at the lowest prices and see the current Comcom IPP & FPP processes delivering that.

The users groups, ourselves, InternetNZ & Consumer NZ want to see the savings passed onto the consumer and we are committed to preserving the integrity of our current regulatory system because it is actually working.

TUANZ has invested a lot of time and effort in getting the NZ telecommunications market to its current structure, we have a robust regulator and strong multi-stakeholder processes. Boost HD could see an end to all that and it would be a return to the dark old days.

This really is the big game in town.

We’ve become used to good news

Sometimes reality can bite, and that looks to be the case with the latest TrueNet report on rural broadband, which has actually seen real world performance of rural broadband connections decline.

This is surprising because a review of the RBI spin machine leads you to believe that its all sorted, the problem is that it isn’t and it won’t be sorted for quite a while.

The reason is simple NZ is a really awkward shape from an engineering perspective and farmers choose to live in strange and remote places. Getting adequate services to them is hard and the business models are ugly if you take the traditional approach (especially if you want a telco style return on capital in 5 years).

The other problem is that many urban technologies aren’t a good fit beyond relatively densely settled horticultural districts or compact Waikato style dairy farms. DSL performance degrades over distance and even the fasters xDSL’s run out of puff about 1km or so from the cabinet.

And its not really very economic to deploy 1 cabinet per subscriber and even then a lot of farms have long driveways. Farmers basically have 2 needs, reliable broadband to connect increasingly sophisticated farming operations to the world and ubiquitous mobile coverage, mainly voice but with a bit of data thrown in.

The TrueNet survey confirms that despite the hype, things aren’t getting better for most rural users, in fact they can look forward to them getting worse, with ageing copper infrastructure, a cash-strapped Chorus and no ongoing TSO beyond the end of the RBI.

More and better data would be great, TrueNet want more rural probes and their are also many rural subscribers either on the Farmside satellite network or using local wireless operators like inspire.net or AmuriNet (I was a happy user of The Pacific.net when I was back living in rural Marlborough) who don’t really show up in these results.

4G fixed wireless will help enormously, but it will have to be competitively priced with realistic data caps, but ultimately I still believe the answer has to be fibre to the farm.

It can (& has been) done, but it requires out of the box thinking, an acceptance of a degree of self reliance along with a community based funding, build and ownership model – a bit like Northpower are proposing now that they have some time on their hands.