Is the RBI fit for the ‘Internet of Cows?’

If you Google the ‘Internet of Cows‘ you will see that not only is it a serious topic, its also one that we in New Zealand should take very seriously. If you want to get all agri-techie follow some of the links to get an idea of what is coming for Daisy and Buttercup.

But since we’re all pretty dependent on white gold for a big chunk of our national well being its worth stopping to think about how Daisy and Buttercup are getting on-line. At the moment most of our IoC consists of an RFID eartag called NAIT, this is a scheme that was introduced a couple of years ago to keep track of our cattle and deer herds from birth to ermmm ‘processing’, it was introduced primarily for biosecurity purposes but it is also the beginning of an on farm digital revolution.

Because every cow now has a unique digital identifier there is now a growing range of tools for the digital farmer, and we’ll see new and unimagined applications emerge in the coming years.

Allied to this is a whole movement called precision agriculture which is enormously exciting for a gadget loving farm boy like me. In fact we even have the NZ Centre for Precision Agriculture at Massey University who are figuring out how to best use these techniques in our rather unique pastoral farming environment.

So my question is this, is the RBI really good enough for the Internet of Cows (& Sheep & Trees & Rivers & Tractors & Pumps….) because very soon all of these things are going to be sensor equipped, location aware, remote controlled data generating devices. Upload speeds from the farm, orchard, vineyard and forestry blocks are going to matter.

We’ve yet to see a true Farm Area Network technology emerge, and I’m not sure any of the farmers I know will pay for lots of little data transmissions over 3&4G networks, they will need serious connections into their farm offices and from there to the cloud where all this data is going to be processed.

My picks are some kind of local super WiFi that the farmers own, then either ‘fribre from the farn’ as Northpower want to deliver or some form of affordable 4G fixed wireless that can give good 100Mb/s grade service. I’m pretty certain that current copper, satellite and wireless services aren’t going to be that useful to Daisy and Buttercup.

Is it a little frosty in Hell this morning?

I know its certainly cold enough here in #gigatownporirua, as you’ve probably picked up already I’m a fairly unreconstructed Apple fanboy, its an obsession stretching all the way back to otago University in the 80’s.

Believe it or not its actually been something that has served me quite well over the years, partly because to survive Apple had to sort out the real trends in ICT and make them work for its customers (that is before they started setting the trends) and also because they are a fascinating company to watch.

I’ve become a fan of Apple’s early days, when they were ‘The Pirates of Silicon Valley” along with others like a young Microsoft and Larry Ellison’s Oracle. My own tee-shirt evangelism has been inspired by reading ‘Guy Kawasaki’ who evangelised the original Macintosh and is now a tech guru in his own right.

One of the things he talked about getting right was having a big enemy and for Apple it was IBM, not as many would imagine Microsoft (in fact Microsoft was a big part of the success of the Mac!).

So that makes this weeks news rather poignant, IBM and Apple are in a partnership that will probably define enterprise ICT in the mobile era.

This is not like their past dalliances where IBM briefly made mac clones under Gil Amelio or the fact that Mac’s ran on IBM PowerPC chips for a decade, no this is IBM giving Apple the keys to the corporate suite with IBM’s blessing.

I remember the times when you’d look out over a sea of Windows laptops at a conference, spot a Mac and smile at a fellow member of your tribe. Now its the other way round, last week at KANZ & nethui Apple was everywhere.

This news has caused shares in Blackberry to tank even further and it’ll be interesting to see what else happens.

From a TUANZ perspective it show that Apple will be ‘dug in’ in the high end of town for the foreseeable future, although I think we’ll see Google trying to match this somehow.

But my other reflection is on the concept of a big enemy, for most of TUANZ’s existence that was easy, it was Telecom.

And what an enemy they were, it was easy to rally everybody else against them and a vital role played by TUANZ was being the conduit for new ideas and regulatory concepts.

Competition was a radical concept and feisty challengers nibbled away at the bohemoth, slowly change was yielded in something that resembled  a World War 1 style war of attrition.

Today’s battles are more complex, the skirmishes are subtle and the alliances are more complex.

Do we have big enemies anymore?…

Is the answer in hand?

The battle for your hands (and wallets) has been heating up in recent days with the latest event being both Telecom and Vodafone making announcements about turning their recent 700Mhz spectrum purchases into the latest front in the opening skirmishes of the 4G wars.

Both developments actually fall into the category of ‘positioning’ Vodafone want to preserve their hard won reputation as the ‘first’ with new services and Telecom (soon to be Spark) careful to add to their ‘best’ position. Its all a little academic as there is still a shortage of 4G devices that can access the full range of 4G frequencies.

Underneath all this something more important is happening and that is the maturing of mobile broadband into a fully capable challenger for the fixed line broadband dollar. 

Beyond a desktop PC, what was the last device you plugged into a wired network cable? I bet it was some form of wireless access point.

WiFi has conquered all our devices, laptops, tablets, phones, printers, TV’s, stereos, security cameras – the list can even stretch to fridges, washing machines and light bulbs. 

Over 20 years ago M.I.T Medialab digital guru Nicholas Negroponte famously postulated what has become know as the ‘Negroponte Switch’ which stated that:

Put simply he suggested that due to accidents of engineering history we had ended with static devices – such as televisions receiving their content via signals travelling over the airways while devices which should have been mobile and personal – such as telephones were receiving their content over static cables. It was his idea that a better use of available communication resource would result if the information (such as phone calls) going through the cables was to go through the air and that going through the air (such as TV programmes) was to be delivered via cables.

And thats pretty much what we’ve been living through, the information part is the likes of YouTube and Netflix and all our wireless devices are the other part. And WiFi and cellular are intimately linked, WiFi is always about half a generation faster in its latest formats but cellular is more ubiquitous but its expensive and we are trained into treating as a scarce resource.

I know that I wait to get back to either the office or my home before I do any heavy lifting such as software updates or watching movies not because 3G or 4G isn’t capable of the download but because of the cost in terms of data usage.

There is now no reason other the cost of mobile data stopping 4G being a faster alternative to todays copper based broadband and it will give the lower end fibre services some serious competition as well.

So what does the 700Mhz 4G war mean for us? several big things, more coverage in more places, potentially including rural NZ (who despite the RBI still desparately want both better broadband and reliable cellular coverage), it will hopefully lead to mobile data plans that are realistically priced and with practical monthly capacity allowances.

As more multi-band 4G devices become available these networks will get put to the test but there is now no doubt that those lucky enough to live in 4G coverage zones are going to be spoiled for choice. Early adopters will see these networks at their uncontended, best but there are many promising techniques which promise to deliver reliable 50mb/s+ performance.

And we’ll see more use of carrier WiFi to help with the heavy lifting and ‘small cells’ will fill in the coverage gaps.

I think this will also define the major use of the UFB,  as being the backhaul that we all build our wireless networks on. Just like todays cellular networks, we all want to be just one wireless hop away from fibre.

This is actually going to take the best part of the next decade to roll out, and it should be finished just in time for the 5G wars – whatever they are going to be.

Labour launches ICT Policy at Nethui

Labour leader David Cunliffe & ICT spokesperson Clare Curran released part one of their 2014 ICT policy  at Nethui 2014 this morning.

I’ll do a detailed breakdown later as I have a busy morning at Nethui.

I’ve taken out the big ideas as I see them, Labour do look like they’ve read our 2008 Green Paper calling for a National Digital Arrchitecture (take a bow Ernie Newman).

Biggest idea I see is the establishment of National CTO role reporting to the PM like the Chief Scientist, this is quite different and separate to the current GCIO.

Labour want to see more high skill, high value jobs created, to this end they propose 1200 ICT apprenticeships as well the impact of their capital gains tax on start ups.

They have two interesting ideas to stimulate innovation, first is the idea of ‘Garage Grants’ small start up funds to get the next Kiwi Steve Jobs going (Rod Dury 2.0?) and to give them something to focus on we have the ‘X’ Prizes.

This is very interesting if it is done right, its worth having a look at the X Prize concept and where it came from, the most famous X Prize was the idea of rewarding the first private venture to put a manned spacecraft into space and return it safely to earth. The prize was $10,000,000 and it was winner takes all.

Imagine if Richard Pearse had been rewarded for flying before the Wright brothers.

Lots of questions but if it is done right and with private sector involvement and focus in selecting the prize areas it could be a game changer for how Kiwis see themselves and technology.

The worst thing that could happen is for this to be seen as another science grant system and it gets captured by the usual suspects.

There will be a second policy dealing with connectivity issues, such as the UFB, RBi & what comes next.

It will be interesting to see how the Government responds and what vision they release.

I’d give this policy a B+ on first pass.

Some random observations from Nethui….

The turnout and diversity of the attendees shows how important the Internet is to many, many groups.

ubiquity of access will increase to the point where the internet itself becomes invisible, and devices are shrinking to the point they will be indistinguishable from magic.

We need to think of the Internet of People before all the other internets, we’re along way from the old network of networks.

Time is the enemy of quality in many on-line issues.

Data journalism is an interesting idea, but I wonder how many people are good at both words and numbers?

A lot of ideas about the internet in 25 years were actually about fixing the internet of today.

I’ve loved hearing the scifi analogies, there are some more I’d add, especially from Neal Stephenson.

Yesterday at KANZ was very formal and supply side, today Nethui is very demand side, how do we bring them together?

More to follow – over….

 

Normal transmission will resume shortly…

I’m currently in Auckland attending KANZ (the Korea Australia New Zealand Technology Summit) and Nethui 2014.

Two quite different approaches to the same issue, which is how do we engage with digital networks and technologies to advance as societies, economies and nations.

So I’ll be posting shorter regular updates while I’m here and over the next few days as I reflect on both events.

So stay tuned, I’ll also be tweeting as well at @kiwiradarman

 

more to follow – over….

 

Digital Exclusion

I’m getting ready to help facilitate at session at next weeks Nethui on ‘Digital Inclusion & UFB Uptake’, which has got me thinking.

What is it that currently excludes people from being able to participate in the digital world ?

it occurs to me that there are really only three reasons:

   1.   Choice – they actively choose not to participate for many reasons, some could be cultural or religious, some could be attitudinal and for some it could simply be the desire for a simpler life.

   2.   Access – they may live in physical locations where access simply isn’t possible or the access they can get is inadequate for full participation. This is the case for our rural, remote and under served communities.

   3.   Cost – we have a large number of households (estimates range between 23 & 27% roughly 1:5)

So it is a major issue, what can we do about it?

Feel free to engage in the comments box, is this a personal choice issue, is there a role for government ( both central & local)? Is there something completely out of the box, like pre-pay UFB

How important is inclusion? Will it be a bigger deal as the world becomes more data rich and hyper connected?

The ‘gigabit’ debate

Who needs a gigabit speed connection?

That was one of the most common responses to yesterday’s discussions on the impact of Ultrafast Fibre’s ‘giganet’ announcement. And it’s a perfectly rational argument but one that is ultimately flawed and definitely one that will delay both UFB uptake and the digital transformation of the New Zealand economy.

its probably 2 decades since the idea of a 1 gigabit per second network entered my consciousness, my agency was working with the team at the recently launched Xtra and one of their esteemed geeks breathlessly told me that gigabit Ethernet switches were coming and they were going to revolutionize dial-up internet!

I went back to thinking about selling residential dial up.

Fast forward a decade to 2004 and I was sitting in the advanced networking stream at TUANZ’s 2nd National Broadband Conference in Hastings (I was there on a guerrilla marketing mission for CityLink using Tee-shirts as a weapon!). I was in the room with Simon Riley and many of the fathers of the Internet in NZ (Messr’s Houlker, March, James, Hine etc) listening to the father of ‘Canarie’ (Canada’s advanced research network) Bill St Arnaud share his wisdom.

The discussion was around Bill’s insistence that advanced networks needed to start at 1 gb/s, one of the workshop participants said ‘gigabit, meh! our network hardly ever runs at more than 10mb/s,’

Bill smiled and gave a one word answer ‘Overhead’

I was already struggling to keep up, so I played dumb (I had the lowest IQ in the room) and got him to explain what he meant, so he patiently explained that files (data sets in e-science speak) were getting bigger and bigger and were mostly moved on external media (disks, tapes, CD’s, DVD’s and even whole hard drives) but with gigabit you could save money and time moving these over the network and still keep all your other users happy.

The penny dropped for me, my agency had also seen this happen, in the late 90’s we’d been spending literally tens of thousands of dollars a month on cycle couriers, digital printing, external hard drives (remember Jaz drives and Zip disks?) this was normal and we recovered the costs in our charges.

But in 1999 we moved to an office that had CityLink running past the window, we were installed on the weekend we moved in, and an edict was issued that our first method of moving files was to be digital transfer.

in these days of the cloud, Dropbox, Xero and Saas you’re probably yawning into your decaf latte and thinking what’s the point.

Well the overhead in our digital homes is rapidly increasing, we all generate and share digital media and support increasingly busy home networks, all media is heading on-line and so are big chunks of healthcare and education.

One case in point, Ultra High Definition TV’s are coming, if you look at one in Harvey Norman’s or Dick Smith’s this weekend, take a look around the back – there’s a pretty grunty dedicated PC pumping out a Weta grade video stream. Guess what – you can’t broadcast UHD! 

So in the not to distant future if you want the best seat at an All Blacks game it’ll will be coming to you in UHD over your 1gb/s UFB connection (and they do like their rugby in the gigatron).

Just like every other step we’ve taken in home connectivity, we’ll use all the capacity and we’ll be looking for more.

 

 

 

3D future…Is it Green?

Last week the Green Party released its high tech manufacturing policy at the Wellington Maker Space, they got my attention because this is an area close to my heart (both my sons are aspiring ‘Makers’ and the eldest had his 11th birthday party at the Maker Space) and I know they are onto something championing this whole area.

I do wonder how Gareth Hughes is going to align the bio-tech and nano-tech capabilities of this technology with some of his supporters but good on him for getting this into the public debate.

We really are heading into the post-industrial world and the idea of 3D printing can be traced back to a few sources, for me the ultimate 3D printer is the ‘Star Trek’ replicator and the concept of ‘seeds and feeds’ was developed for me in Neal Stephenson awesome book ‘The Diamond Age’.

Industrial CNC technology has been heading in this direction for a while, when we were working on the business case for the ‘NMi – Nelson Marlborough inforegion’ project  (a Broadband Challenge funded extension of Network Tasman’s fibre optic network into Marlborough) I came across Air New Zealand engineering subsidiary Safe Air who wanted fibre at Woodbourne.

The reason they wanted it was because they were FAA certified to make parts for aircraft provided their raw materials were of the required and their machinery was capable of machining the part to the required standard. Fibre to Safe Air would eliminate the need for the CNC files to be shipped on disk. This is a form of 3D printing, what Gareth has picked up is the rapid consumerisation of 3D printing.

The hobbyist is now being spoiled for choice as cheap 3D printers are now heading below $1000, and the results are getting better and better (although for some reason everyone seems to want to print rabbits???), I’ve been looking at this area for about 3 years now and while I can see huge potential, its still a long way from being ready for prime time.

There is a whole 3D eco-system that needs to be assembled and the printers are just one part of it, a far bigger piece of the puzzle is opening up the world of 3D design.

Original creative designs is one thing (Kiwi start-up Ponoko was a pioneer in this space) and represents a huge potential market for talented designers and crafts people. The Green policy recognises the importance of getting 3D design into our schools and there is a great future for talented 3D designers.

I can see the Green appeal in having the world serviced by ‘distributed factories’ (the vision of Ponoko founder Dave ten Have) where transport is reduced to the distance between the consumer and the nearest ‘Fab’ (fabrication point), a lot of packaging waste can be eliminated and consumers will get unheard of options for customisation.

it also marks the return in a very high tech sense of the artisan craftsman, the world will again see beautiful yet functional devices, tools, trinkets and toys.

But like all technologies there is a dark flip side, several in fact, the first is IP theft and counterfeiting – it will be possible to scan a product and recreate a perfect facsimile. Another threat is the use of substandard material and the subsequent risks of failure (thats why the FAA certifies people like Safe Air) and who and what do consumers trust?

Overall I’d have to give the Greens a B+ on this one, we look forward to seeing what other parties are considering in this area. 

I’m feeling left out…

You know that feeling you got as a teenager, when the cool kids were having a party that you weren’t invited to ? But you found out about it and you really, really wanted to go ?

Well I’m starting to feel that way about 5G, I know the party doesn’t start until 2022 but it’s going to be soooo cool, those Chinese kids are already picking out their party gear and I just heard from my mate in Aussie (well today’s Comms Day) that those Euros with the cool glasses (& a Digital Agenda for Europe) and those techno South Koreans are working together on their party pieces and everything ! (South Korea already has a 5G forum).

That Aussie kid hasn’t been invited yet but he’s a jock so they’ll invite him to pull the chicks, maybe we can get in with him ?

Hmmmmm

Meanwhile in other news, the worlds fastest mobile broadband (according to Ookla – providers of the Speedtest  app) is right here in New Zealand – Yay (only if you’re a Vodafone customer though!)

And the fastest place – Kelburn

Well done those guys, maybe we can go to the 5G party cos we’re really really cool dancers ?